Libyan crisis and possible scenarios

Libyan crisis and possible scenarios

by Ahmed Elahgal

Mr. Elahgal a member of the political
work team of Dr. Saif Al-Islam Gaddafi, and media adviser.

First – The scenario of a political solution that requires stopping the military operations and reaching a real political consensus that includes all the conflicting Libyan parties, including the spectator, the mass system under the umbrella of the United Nations, which is trying to restore the Skhirat Agreement and expand the circle of participation, but the data that relate to it are vague and Unclear.

Terms of application of the scenario

At the national level, it is necessary to reach a political consensus to turn the page on the conflict in Libya and the need for the Libyan parties to achieve the conviction that a great deal of their interests have been achieved and that the military guard is not available in the short and medium term, and the continuation of the fighting will lead to double the human and material losses of the parties. Diesputing and harming the higher national interest.

At the regional and international levels

The success of the political solution needs agreement between the regional powers in the Libyan issue on the necessity and necessity of ending the episodes of the conflict. It also requires a serious and strong international role to impose consensus on the Libyan conflicting parties and on the regional parties that insist on interfering in the Libyan affairs and on the failure of national reconciliation efforts and the success of this. The scenario requires that some international parties cease their bias in favor of some parties to the conflict and expand the circle of political agreement to become truly inclusive of all Libyan parties and advance knowledge of the serious repercussions of the conflict and its continuation on regional and international security.

Possible consequences of a successful political solution scenario

1- Preserving the unity of the Libyan soil and removing the specter of division, based on political, regional, and tribal foundations and backgrounds.

2- Devoting stability and security in the country and stopping the shameful criminal acts such as killing and kidnapping, and limiting the depletion of the state’s resources and wasting its energies and capabilities, which will lead to maintaining international peace and security

3- Opening the door to improving economic conditions and reducing the level of life suffering on Libyans, and this will have a positive reflection, even on the countries of the Ring.

4- To allow political reform to take place and put the country on the threshold of democratization.

5- Enclosing extremist ideology and combating and eradicating terrorist groups in order to deny them the ability to invest chaos in providing popular incubators.

Second – on the external level

1- To stop regional and international interference in the Libyan internal affairs in order to preserve the sovereignty and independence of the state.

2- Supporting the democratic process and respecting its rules.

3- Contributing to the consolidation of regional stability and confronting the dangers and negative repercussions on neighboring countries and on international peace and security.

The second scenario is the military settlement

Characterization of the scenario Ending the conflict by force through the victory of one side and another defeat, and in this scenario the balance of power, armament, and continued support play a major role in survival or annihilation.

Terms of application of the scenario

On the Libyan internal level, a military solution becomes a fait accompli in the event that political efforts fail, and one of the two parties possesses sufficient military strength and equipment to overturn the balance of power and resolve the conflict in the field.

On the regional and international levels, the success of the military resolution scenario requires intensifying the support of regional and international parties to this or that party with money, equipment and experts, and perhaps in some stage of the conflict, the matter will evolve and direct military intervention.

Potential consequences of a successful military solution

First – internally

1- Continuing chaos, security deterioration, loss of stability, and continuing opportunities for renewed conflict again as a result of the dissatisfaction of the local parties and those behind them with defeat and the results of the military resolution, whether for this party or that.

2- The failure and failure of political and democratic reform in the country and the spread of negative phenomena.

3- The persistent economic depletion and the low opportunities for maintaining and recovering the national economy, which represent the harsh conditions that exist in the current scene.

4- Preserving the unity of the state while continuing the situation of congestion and stalking.

5- Providing a suitable environment for the activities of terrorist groups within the Libyan national territory.

Second – on the external level

1- The increasing volume of external interference in the Libyan affairs, the State’s withdrawal of intense regional, regional and international conflicts and alignments, and the country opened an arena to settle the conflicts of other countries at the expense of the Libyan people, their neighbors, and their national security.

2- Reducing opportunities for stability and continuing regional and international tampering.

3- Affecting negatively the democratic transition and achieving the opportunity for a peaceful transfer of power.

The third scenario is the division of the national state

Describing the scenario, awakening the frameworks of previous affiliation to the establishment of the tribal national state, and the entity that will result in embodying the state of political division, fragmenting the unity of the national state, and working to divide it into two or more separate entities on a geographical, tribal, or regional basis.

Conditions for this scenario

On the national level, the lack of success of the political reconciliation efforts, and the two parties to the conflict in the conflict reached a conviction that the political dialogue is futile and the armed force could not be resolved in favor of one of the parties, and thus it is preferable to follow external agendas to separate entities.

On the regional and international levels, support for regional and international parties that provide for the division of the country and a group for their ambitions in oil, gas and other resources

This is due to two reasons: this scenario is in harmony with its interests, or because it knows that the Allies are unable to resolve the conflict in its favor.

Possible outcomes

First – internally

1- Destroying the unity of the state and creating weak and rival entities.

2- Continuing attrition between entities and failure to achieve stability in the country.

3- It will seriously harm the Libyan social fabric and national unity, exacerbating tribal and geographical conflicts.

4- A complete blockage in the path of political and democratic reform in the country.

5- Striking and weakening the national economy, losing the independence of the national decision, and causing a negative impact on the Libyan living conditions.

6- Providing an environment suitable for extremism and terrorist groups.

Second – on the external level

1- The volume of negative external interventions in the Libyan affairs will double, and the dependence of the separate entities on the regional and international parties supporting them will make the Libyan land a space for external conflicts in which the interests of the Libyan people and neighboring countries are not appreciated.

2- Making a negative impact in the context of democratization.

3- Growing threats to regional security, especially to neighboring countries.

The fourth scenario is the continuing recession

Scenario description

Chaos and sporadic fighting continue.

Conditions for this scenario

On the national level, the parity in the balance of power and the ability of the two parties to achieve a military settlement continues, and the second condition is the lack of acceptance of the political agreement and the government that derives from it.

On the regional and international levels, this scenario calls for the continuation of external interventions in support of the conflicting Libyan parties at the pace prior to the Tripoli war on 4 April 2019 without achieving a decrease or a significant increase in support that disturbed the balance of power in favor of one of the parties.

Possible consequences of a recession scenario

Internally

1- Continuing chaos, deteriorating security, side battles, and the continued absence of the political and security role of the state.

2- The state of political, institutional, and geographical division that is currently in existence continues without its demarcation.

3- The continued waste of financial resources, the depletion of the national economy, and the poor living conditions of Libyans.

4- The prospect of a political solution and the path of democratic reform that the Muslim Brotherhood is obstructing is blocked, and the parties are preoccupied with the conflict situation, which will not lead to building a stable state.

5- Renew the opportunity for the emergence of extremist terrorist incubators, despite their low presence and strength as a result of successive strikes in the eastern region, as well as in the central region and Sabratha.

On the external level

1- Continuing external interventions in the Libyan internal affairs to prolong the conflict and the absence of stability.

2- The negative repercussions and repercussions associated with the state of chaos and infighting in Libya continue to occur on regional stability and the security of neighboring countries.

3- The effects of the negative conflict in Libya on the democratic path.

Scenarios summary

• The continuation of the conditions that existed before the April 4 war, which contain major risks internally and externally, but the success of the scenario of division or military resolution without knowing which party will win the military possibility entails great dangers to the future of Libya and seriously threatens the security and stability of countries The neighborhood, which suffers from political and security unrest.

• The political solution scenario contains results that have been largely determined on the internal and external side, which requires choosing it as an alternative to the weapon, which may be a refusal without any difference in the event of the imbalance of power and the escalation of the level of military support for either party. Therefore, we call for the necessity of intensifying the various Libyan efforts And regional and international in order to achieve a just political settlement that includes all parties under the umbrella of the United Nations, which we believe is still the crisis and does not seek to solve it, it works like a swing moving without reaching the goal.

A just settlement aims to reconcile and reach parliamentary and presidential elections in which Al-Faisal is the will of the Libyan people.

• The existing indicators and data indicate that one of the four possible scenarios occurs, which makes it difficult to tip any of the four scenarios with a relative preference for a political solution, but this matter depends on the will of the conflicting Libyan parties in the first place and the will of the international parties affecting the scene. Current Libyan

Enterprise

First – for the conflicting Libyan parties

1- The necessity of assuming the responsibility of the country and preventing its division on political, geographical, and tribal backgrounds in order to avoid the great risks that could occur if the country’s unity is torn apart, God forbid.

2- Stopping all military operations and matters related to polarization, bringing foreign mercenaries to the country, striving to find fair political treatment, comprehensive national reconciliation, and demonstrating goodwill and sufficiency sufficient to achieve a just political settlement and a true national consensus that opens the future prospects for the Libyans without isolation or exclusion Or marginalization.

3- Joint regional and international cooperation to confront terrorist groups and spread the values ​​and culture of moderation in society to prevent the expansion and spread of obscurantist ideas.

4- Forming a government of national unity in which everyone participates without excluding the extension of the state’s sovereignty and uniting the army and the police in order to become unified institutions with respect for the Libyan community, with the necessity of urging the prevention of carrying weapons outside the rule of law, at Cairo meetings to unify the army and the police.

Second – for regional parties and neighboring countries

1- Preventing the flow of support to armed militias and advancing political efforts forward to produce a national unity government that includes everyone and creating appropriate remedies through the national political dialogue away from power.

2- The neighboring countries cooperate in protecting and using the two countries of the two shores of the Mediterranean, and preventing the leakage of the negative effects of the Libyan crisis, as they are to preserve their security and stability, as well as with regard to cooperation in the field of combating terrorism.

Third – the international community

1- Commitment to the outcomes that the Libyans may agree with in the future, support the formation of a government of national unity, and not engage in bias for one or the other.

And stop providing support to the parties to the conflict under the guise of training and sending military experts and followers of the Libyan affair, which overlooks a number of European Union countries, and we believe that it may be used as a pressure card on Europe by Turkey for various reasons, including its desire to enter the European Union and improve its position of influence To compete for energy sources, the most important of which are oil and gas

2- Doubling efforts to reach a just political policy and a government of national unity that includes all Libyans. This calls for the Federal Republic of Germany to exercise political pressure on the United Nations and its mission to support in Libya and countries in the international community to track down with the regime’s supporters as a historical and balanced bloc with its weight. In Libyan society, it is a key part of achieving a comprehensive political and social solution.

3- Further tightening procedures to implement the decision to prevent militias from obtaining weapons.

4- We suggest sponsoring the United States of America in cooperation with the United Nations and the African Union. A meeting of Libyan tribes and cities to know the realistic treatment of the crisis. Efforts to combat terrorist groups in Libya

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