by Ahmed Elahgal
Mr. Elahgal a member of the political
work team of Dr. Saif Al-Islam Gaddafi, and media adviser.
With the expansion of the base of the middle classes and the diversity of its paths and ideology, most of those left-wing or at least those that reach power were forced to change their programs to be more liberal and to address more than the middle classes, and while these currents embraced the project of European unity and a welcome message of immigration and cultures The other, and with the expansion of the field of freedoms, populist currents with the club have emerged as a reaction to this approach to all the people (right-wing populists) or to some of them (left-populism), to varying degrees, capitalist globalization and the European project and migration and adhere to the indigenous culture and the protective role of the state.
And these populist currents succeeded in expanding their bases, especially after the cost of globalization and the deterioration of the standard of living clarified large sectors of the middle classes as it imposed a change in the table of issues on the ground and imposed attention on identity issues and forced most of the other powers to turn right in addressing issues of culture and migration.
It is possible that political stalemate will persist in European countries and in the European Union based on the existence and continuation of a number of trends, the most important of which are:
1 – Increased pessimism and uncertainty: In most European countries, pessimism prevails for many years with regard to individual career paths and where growing European groups develop that political looting will not find solutions to problems with a difference in the interpretation of the causes of expected failure.
Therefore, the percentage of voters who vote for a candidate without being convinced of his program increases because it is (the least harmful), and that is whether they have ended with traditional or populist parties, and this situation creates great confusion because the results of any polls can no longer be predicted.
2- A European gap: where many European groups, especially in Italy and France, see in every European project and globalization it is a trap that cannot be escaped and problems cannot be solved within their framework.
As the countries of the South and East Europe see that the problem is crystallized in Germany’s unilateral decision regarding the issue of immigration and the fact that the euro is designed with the needs of Berlin’s needs and facilitating the mechanisms of work of the German economy
While it impedes the mechanisms of other economies.
And the German sectors see the southern European countries as failing and wasteful that want the Germans to pay bills to save the trouble of restructuring.
3- Various ramifications of globalization: it caused an increasing gap between the beneficiaries and those affected, as the differences between income and purchasing power widened even in the middle classes in Europe.
Redistributive policies succeeded in curbing this phenomenon in some countries, but they did not eliminate it, and even in the case of relative success, societal dissatisfaction seems that voters should not rely on subsidies as European governments tend to reduce them.
It is noticed that the objective beneficiaries of the situation are not always satisfied with him as they complain about anxiety over their jobs and being forced to work overtime. The concern here arises from the possibility of moving European factories and offices to other countries and the expected contributions to the revolution of artificial intelligence not to mention the suffering of regions within European countries From stagnation, internal migration and weak security.
4- Acute identity polarization: There is polarization in every European society about the issues of migration, cultural identity, cultural pluralism, the system of liberal values and the concept of the nation-state, and this is evident in the issue of migration between two main directions: The first sees that migration is necessary for Europe, both because of the small number of births Or enrich the national culture and pluralism or apprehension of fanatic nationalist thought.
This trend is also seen in European unity to confront the challenges of China and Russia. As for the second trend in viewing immigration as an Islamic invasion that wants to impose different values and threatens national identity according to their belief, the European and / or new cultural project also sees an authoritarian project that does not respect the will of peoples and detracts From the sovereignty of the national state and its ability to manage files.
It is noted that the European stance towards Islam in general and private political Islam divides the liberal camp. There is a significant percentage of liberals who are apprehensive of them, while a small percentage of conservatives are welcome with them, and the second camp managed to impose issues of culture, immigration, and identity at the top of the issues discussed in the general and specific debate For the behavior of the voters, and many forces were forced to turn right to consider public opinion.
5- The priorities of the threat vary: There are perceptions that US President Trump and the Russian regime are trying to achieve European unity, they believe.
There are those who see Washington wanting to limit the strength of Germany and want to deal with each European country separately while Russia views the West as an enemy that has not respected its word since the nineties and between this and that, a look at China employs the pitfalls of some European countries in order to increase its penetration as in Greece Hungary, Portugal and the Netherlands, and joint defense issues in Europe are related to that issue. There is agreement on the necessity of strengthening, but in contrast there are differences about defining the requirements of Russia or the southern Mediterranean, other than the position on Turkey, as well as on the problem of financing, there is a general European dissatisfaction with Germany.
6- French-German differences: In the face of the growing challenges of the European project, the possibility of a German-French agreement to restore vitality to Europe appears very weak in light of the many differences between Berlin and Paris.
The most urgent and serious issues on the European scene in:
1- A possible financial jolt in Italy: there are risks from this country, which is seen as the economically sick man in Europe for a major financial shock, especially in its banking system, which is threatened with collapse under the weight of debts, other than that it is a much larger country than Greece, and its rescue will require effort and financing that may Europe cannot do it, and it is clear that some solutions, if he studies them to implement a decision, will exacerbate the problem in the long run.
2- The European leadership’s predicament grows: as Germany appears to be in a state of paralysis in the power transfer phase between Chancellor Angela Merkel and her successors regarding France, where the major political crisis that it is exposed to following protests (the yellow jacket movement) in November 2018, observers agree that In order to achieve an agreement for the European project, but that seems difficult, especially as German public opinion does not want what he calls a reward for those it considers being made in Europe and demands that it focus on tackling the problem of widening poverty in his country.
And some German experts call for the necessity of expelling the southern countries from the European Union, or at least recognizing the principle of a faster group than the other.
However, Germany still needs France politically, and if economic dependence on it falls after the withdrawal of Britain, on the other hand, France believes that its capacity is limited due to its financial conditions and the weakness of the popularity of its president (Macron) after the 2018 protests.
3- Reducing the deterioration of European relations: So the relations between the major private European countries, Germany, France, Italy and Poland, appear cool and expected. These countries are expected to work to improve their relations or reduce their deterioration.
4- The stalemate of the united European army: meaningful European steps are not expected regarding building a unified army in light of the French predicament and diverging perceptions of the priorities of the threat among European countries.
5- The possibility of external crises: The exclusion of Russia and Turkey and other problems within the European interior for future strategic goals or the creation of problems near them or with regard to trade does not lie, which entails further complications on its own economic future in light of Turkey’s challenges To create an economic market after the conclusion of the maritime agreement with the Government of Concord, which derives from the weak Skhirat agreement.