Estimate a position

by Ahmed Elahgal

Mr. Elahgal a member of the political
work team of Dr. Saif Al-Islam Gaddafi, and media adviser.

Libya paths after the fall of Tarhuna and the removal of the Russian position

The groups of the government of Faiz al-Sarraj seized control of Tarhuna on Friday 5 June 2020 The control of Tarhuna loyal to Khalifa Haftar, which is 95 km to the southeast, comes from its geographical borders from the Wadi Fum Malaga area to the west to Barakat Awaini. “The two locations are geographically west of Maslata, which borders Tarhuna in the east. Then from the “Friday Market (Al-Musabah)” and the city of Qarah Polley in the north to the Wadi “Mawaga Al Mazzaghah and Marghanah” bordering Bani Walid in the south In the context of a major transformation, the battles taking place in the western region of Libya have witnessed since Haftar launched his military campaign on Tripoli, the capital, on April 4, 2019. Al-Jafra Air Force Base represents one of the most prominent goals of the Al-Wefaq government and its Ottoman ally The general context of the battle is to follow the strategy of unilateral cities controlled by Haftar forces, so many field and social details make each front a special status Despite the control of Al-Wefaq groups over several towns in the west and center of the country, Haftar forces still have manpower and military equipment due to Emirati support.

The Battle of Sirte and the accounts of the Crescent Petroleum have multiplied the importance of the city of Sirte after the retreat of Haftar’s forces under the airstrikes of the Turkish march and the accounts of the oil Crescent regions have political dimensions that is in his power. He will gain more international pressure papers and the follower of the Libyan affairs that Haftar was not able to maneuver with this paper, but rather a curse on him Which prompted him to reopen the fields again. More international discontent soon, the force of Khaled Bani Walid Haftar closed the elephant field and forced the workers to close it days after it was opened.

However, it is unlikely that the GNA government forces will replicate the scenario of restoring the cities of the western coastal strip in the Sirte front, and that several factors prevent the achievement of field gains in a quick and surprising attack.

Haftar’s allies, the poor and the poor, will not accept losing more land, which will lead to the decline of his negotiating position at the appropriate time, including the transfer of military operations into the eastern cities, so he rushed to accept the Egyptian information in the Cairo Declaration, while the government of Accord supported by Turkey and Qatar rejects it as the official sponsor of the Islamic militant groups.

On the bank of the southern Mediterranean, Italy and Greece signed a new agreement to re-designate the marine areas of the Mediterranean in response to Erdogan’s ambitions to explore energy in the Mediterranean.
Will the warm waters of the Mediterranean bring Russia to the region? The arrival of the MiG and Sukhoi military aircraft to this strategic base that makes the US Sixth Fleet stationed in the Mediterranean that it can perform in light of the setback suffered by Haftar’s forces and its relationship to Turkish support for the government of reconciliation, which is the most important reasons for the coup d’etat was turned in its favor.

While the Russian leadership remains silent on the details of direct intervention in Libya,The Russian media were content with pointing to a brief statement by the Deputy Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Council of the Russian Federation, in which he denies trotting, adding to doubts about Russian intentions and the repercussions of its widespread interference in the Libyan open and complicated matter, in many ways.

The GNA government, since its coming to power through the Skhirat Agreement in 2015, has not succeeded in extending its influence throughout the country due to the weakness of its position and being imposed on the Libyan people from abroad, which is likely to continue to falter between the hammer of Haftar and the anvil of multiple militias, the powerful question that presents itself strongly.

What is the future of Libya after it turned into an arena to settle international accounts, and will a political solution under the auspices of the United Nations be secured, and its unity will guarantee a future in one sovereign state at the end of the day for the Libyans to understand the lesson well and return to the dialogue table without exclusion to find a political treatment acceptable to all so that it does not need Any party to international powers that support it in an internal Libyan conflict; There is no external support without a price..

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